Table 1:
Tentative Plan
| Week |
Topic |
Readings/ |
Comments |
| Starting |
|
Chapters |
|
| 09/03 |
The Nature of Risk Analysis |
|
Handout |
| |
|
|
|
| 09/10 |
Modeling a System |
Chapter 2 |
|
| |
|
|
|
| 09/17 |
Uncertainty and Sensitivity |
Chapter 6.1 - 6.5 |
|
| |
Definitions |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| 09/24 |
Bayesian Inference |
Chapter 12.1 - 12.3 |
Possibly no class on 09/28 |
| |
|
|
|
| 10/01 |
Fractile Method |
Chapter 4.5 |
|
| |
|
|
|
| 10/08 |
Maximin Methods, |
Chapter 4.1 - 4.4 |
|
| |
|
|
|
| 10/15 |
Decision Trees, |
Chapter 4.1 - 4.4 |
|
| |
Leslie Model |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| 10/22 |
Partitioned Mullti-Objective Risk Method |
Chapter 8.1 - 8.6 |
Test 1, |
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| 10/29 |
Multiobjective Trade-off Analysis: |
Chapter 5 |
Possibly no class on 11/02 |
| |
Surrogate Worth Trade-off |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| 11/05 |
Uncertainty Sensitivity Index Method |
Chapter 6.6 - 6.9 |
No class on 11/07, 11/09 |
| |
|
|
|
| 11/12 |
Reliability Analysis: |
Chapter 13 |
Test 2 |
| |
Fault Trees, FMEA |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| 11/26 |
Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis |
Chapter 10.1 -10.5 |
|
| |
Extensions of PMRM, |
|
|
| |
Decision Trees and Sensitivity Analysis |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| 12/03 |
Statistics of Extreme Events |
Chapter 11 |
|
| |
|
|
|
| 12/10 |
Final Projects Due |
Presentation |
Reports |
| |
|
|
|
