Advances in water resources management in the Rio Sonora basin, Mexico through collaborative modeling

Arid and semiarid regions may shoulder disproportional impacts of climate change due to the low resiliency and robustness inherent in both the natural and human infrastructure systems. We are studying decision-making for water resources management in anticipation of climate change in northern Mexico. The goal of the proposed project is to determine whether water resources systems modeling, developed within a participatory framework, can contribute to the building of management strategies in a context of water scarcity, conflicting water uses and highly variable and changing climate conditions. The work will evaluate the sustainable outcomes emerging from the climate change scenarios and the potential adaptations that can be implemented in the decision-making process.

Collaborators

· Enrique Vivoni, Arizona State University

· Agustin Robles-Morua, Technical Institute of Sonora, Mexico

Workshops

Local actors have been involved in guiding the design of supply- and demand-side management strategies and selection of climate change scenarios using state-of-the-art engineering tools. These tools include a water resources systems framework, a spatially-explicit hydrologic model, the use of forecasted climate scenarios under 21st century climate change, and observations obtained from field and satellite sensors. The participatory modeling approach was conducted through a series of interactive workshops, carefully designed to encourage substantive participation from a broad range of actors.

Workshop Website: Cambio Climático y Recursos de Agua en la Cuenca del Río Sonora

Presentations

· 2014 International Water Association Water, Energy and Climate Conference: Participatory modeling

· 2014 International Environmental Modelling & Software Society Conference: Surface-groundwater linkages in water resources systems model

· 2013 American Geophysical Union: Participatory modeling

· 2013 Meeting of the Americas: Participatory modeling

· 2011 American Meteorological Society: Hydrologic predictions based on remote sensing and ground data

Papers

· 2015 Hydrological Sciences Journal: Hydrological assessment of proposed reservoirs

· 2014 Environmental Modelling & Software: Assessment of 2010 participatory modeling workshop

· 2012 Journal of Hydrometorology: Hydrologic modeling explores links between runoff mechanisms and evapotranspiration

· 2012 Journal of Environmental Management: Modeling riverine pathogen fate and transport